Monday, January 18, 2021

Rain Still likely Latter This Week


Brilliant blues skies over the Catalinas again, this morning of the Martin Luther King Holiday. However, model forecasts continue to indicate that there will be a good chance for a rainy end of the week.

Second image from bottom shows a pink sunrise on this past Saturday morning.

I have been alerted by Morris Webb, of Albuquerque, that the image at bottom does NOT show the lights of Los Angeles, as I have often stated. Rather the view from Mt. Hamilton is of the lights of San Jose and San Francisco at the north end of the Santa Clara Valley. Thanks to Morris for his message

A short wave at 500 mb, current offshore west of California, closes off west of Baja and then brings us several wet days as it inches eastward across Arizona, while opening up. The 500 mb GFS forecast above is valid 06 UTC on the 21st, at the start of the rainy period. Forecasts of QPF from the 06 UTC GEFS ensemble members are shown below. 

The forecasts are consistent, all indicating rain chances from the 20th through the 26th; however, total amounts are all over the place, ranging from 0.10" to almost 2.50". The amounts of the average (black) and the operational GFS (blue) would bring a very welcome end to our long dry spell.

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