Gray Morning To Start Long Weekend

Heavy, ragged overcast across the Tucson area this morning (above), but bit of sun peeked through at sunrise as per views at bottom from Mt. Lemmon and Kitt Peak.

The 06 UTC GEFS members forecast of temperature for TUS (above) indicates cooling during the Holiday weekend.

The ensembles (above) forecast chances for light showers this evening, Saturday night, and then again on 16th and 17th. All members forecast rain at the airport on Saturday night, indicating POPs near 100 percent for the second event. However, the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast (below) indicates very slight chances for rain in metro area and nothing at airport. Last time there was this kind of difference the WRF prevailed.

The ensembles also indicate a windy weekend (above), and the WRF forecasts strongest winds to occur on Saturday night, with forecast below vaild at 11:00 pm MST. Note that the winds are from the southwest, which is strongly downslope in the high-resolution WRF grids.