Showers Tonight?

High overcast this morning at sunrise with some nice color.  Down at bottom is view from Kitt Peak looking north about 5 minutes later. 

The only precipitation report (looked at both MesoWest and ALERT data) that I could find for past 24-hours was 0.16" at Dan Saddle on north side of Catalinas, but a couple of the high elevation sites had a bit of snow during the night.

Below is 06 UTC GEFS forecast of temperatures at the airport for coming week. Cooler temperatures through Thursday then rapid warming, but hardly a taste of winter - note that the GEFS temperature forecasts have a cool bias. For example, this morning's NWS forecast high for today is 72 F and for Monday (President's Day) it is 65 F.

IR satellite image this morning (above for 1331 UTC) indicates a negatively tilted trough to our northwest. This feature is forecast to have moved just to our east (GFS 500 mb forecast below) by midnight tonight.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) continue to forecast high probability of light showers tonight. Current POPs from NWS are for a 50 percent chance of measurable rain (i.e., 0.01" or more) at the airport.

 However, the 06 UTC WRF-GFS (below) continues to forecast little for all of the southwestern half of Arizona through noon tomorrow. (This product popped up with a white background, which makes it much easier for me to decipher.) Our last measurable rain here at house was 0.12" on the evening of 29 January.

So right now the GEFS (above) and WRF-GFS Atmo run (below) from midnight forecast mostly gusty winds as the short wave moves by. The WRF forecast below is valid at 4:00 pm MST this afternoon.