Monday, April 26, 2021

Increasing Chances For Showers

View of Catalinas and clear skies this morning a bit before 6:00 am MST. Down at bottom are early morning views of Bisbee and Flagstaff.

The 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) at 12 UTC this morning shows a complex cyclone over the northwest US, and a trough extending far to its south along the west coast. The 06 UTC GFS 500 mb forecast (below) brings the cyclone south, so that by 5:00 pm tomorrow afternoon the system is centered over Yuma. 

Apparently some problems at Atmo during the night, so no 06 or 12 UTC WRF products for comparison.

Precipitation forecast from the GFS (above) is through noon on Wednesday the 28th. The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (below) have increased (relative to past two days), and now indicate 100 percent likelihood for rain at the airport tomorrow. Forecast amounts have increased substantially, with the average now over 0.30". The current morning forecast from the NWS is second below, indicating 60 percent POPs for airport tomorrow. The GEFS wind forecast indicates strong winds today, and the NWS forecast calls for gusts as high as 37 mph at the airport. Will be interesting to watch how this all evolves during the next 48 hours or so.

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