Sunday, April 25, 2021

Quick Look Ahead

View of the Catalinas about 6:30 am MST this morning, showing a bit of haze/dust in the air here. Two views down at bottom: another nice sunrise at Silver City, New Mexico; and view of Guaymas, San Carlos Marina, also about 6:30 am.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for rainfall at TUS ((above) are fairly bullish for precipitation Monday night and Tuesday, with average amount a bit over 0.20".

The WRF runs at Atmo are much less indicative of precipitation for southeast Arizona. Above is forecast from 06 UTC WRF-GFS for rain through 11:00 am on Wednesday the 28th; and below is WRF-NAM from 12 UTC forecast for rainfall through noon on the 28th. Not much to get excited about in those forecasts - so we'll watch to see how the various forecasts pan-out.

Forecast second below is for total precipitation though the end of April from the 00 UTC WRF-GFS, with again little forecast for our part of the state. Another situation of dueling forecasts: NWS versus Atmo models.

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