Friday, April 23, 2021

Trough Nearly Overhead This Morning

There was a bit of fog and stratus over the Mt. Lemmon SkyCenter before sunrise this morning (above from about 5:25 am MST). The skies up there cleared rapidly after sunrise. Down at bottom is a view of Flagstaff and the San Francisco Peaks at about the same time.

This morning's 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows that a short-wave trough has just passed by TWC. The strongest part of this trough appears to be over northwestern Mexico - as this feature moves toward the southern Plains severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of it this afternoon.

The 500 mb forecast (below - from 06 UTC WRF-GFS and valid at 11:00 pm on the 27th - next Tuesday night) indicates another, perhaps stronger, trough moving across our area. The GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (second below) indicate better chances for light rain at the airport with this next system.

Forecast above is from the 00 UTC GFS and is for total precipitation through the end of the month. This model forecast indicates a bit of precipitation to our west. However, the forecast from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo (below) brings some light rainfall across the metro area on Monday night. So perhaps a slight chance for a bit of April rain before the month comes to a mostly dry end.

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