As I wrote below, the events of yesterday afternoon, and then on until midnight or so, far exceeded what I expected. The interaction of numerous outflows with the strong easterly low-level flow/backdoor front easily trumped the light and variable winds aloft. This appears to be a very unusual event - worthy of careful study, since it exceeded what any of the models or human forecasters indicated.------------------------------------------------------------
Rainfall update - this morning 83 of the 93 ALERT stations had rainfall in past 24-hours with 11 sites having amounts over an inch. The reporting stations show that Ft. Huachuca had 1.55" and Tucson airport 1.21". Ten RAWS stations had rainfall with Empire, Columbine, and Rincon each reporting over an inch, but Carr measured an amazing 3.56". Having recently been up the Carr Canyon Road with Art, I can vividly imagine what the runoff flooding was like!
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The IR satellite image at top is from 2330z on the 24th - note that: There is a small, strong MCS in northwestern Cochise County and several storms were building in northern Mexico. Apparently different outflows converged in southwestern Cochise County, so that by 0700z on the 25th (bottom) there was a single, weakening MCS centered over the region of heaviest rains. Art reports 1.68". Meanwhile, here at house we received only 0.19" as the heavy storms went up and down just to the south of here. The rain amount at TUS yesterday exceed our entire total for the month so far here at the house!
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