Friday, September 28, 2012

Few Sprinkles Around This Morning

Edited at 7:30 am MST - The NHC has declared that the disturbance over the southern GoC is now  Tropical Storm Norman. It is expected to move north fairly rapidly and be inland tomorrow.

The above is the 5 am composite radar image from the TUS NWS radar, showing widespread, light echoes across most of southeast Arizona. The echoes are mostly aloft and only a couple of stations have reported rainfall. Nogales received 0.02" - so not much in the way of real rain. Moisture has inched upward upward - surface dewpoints are highest to the west, but increasing locally. Values of PW have also increased. But the significant activity associated with now decayed Miriam remains to the south.

The 1130 UTC IR image shown above shows the remnant circulation of Miriam out to the west of the south end of Baja. There is significant deep convection over the south end of the GoC, and this is associated with the disturbance I mentioned yesterday. The NHC indicates that a tropical storm may be forming in this unusual location (see below). However, the large-scale pattern will be trying to keep the tropical activity and associated high moisture to the south. This new system does warrant some attention, especially in the next 24-hours or so, before ridging at 500 mb over the west pushes things further south.

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