Thursday, September 06, 2012

Somewhat Worn Down

 Have to admit that the lack of features of interest in the synoptic pattern has me worn down some. Today there is very high moisture again, but with totally chopped up winds aloft field continuing over southeastern Arizona. The early WRF-GFS from Atmo predicts a bit of an upturn today (rainfall totals forecast through midnight shown below), but coverage still appears to be only around 30% across eastern Pima County.

The current morning NAM forecast is much more optimistic for southeastern Arizona (NAM forecast rain through midnight is below) both today and tomorrow. So, in general, the  models say we'll see more storms today.

The most interesting larger-scale feature is the 500 mb short-wave trough that digs into the central U.S. by the weekend. This brings a backdoor front into southeastern Arizona, and its strong easterly winds push the low-level moisture back toward the west. We shall see.

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