Yesterday turned out to be an active day with storms developing along the eastern edges of Pima County and westward. Above is plot of CGs through 6 am MST this morning and below is 4:24 pm composite radar from TUS. The storm moving west just south of Oro Valley produced heavy rains and a number of wind damage reports along Ina out to I-10. The storms in southwestern Arizona appear to have been quite severe (judging from their radar signatures and the lightning density). Yuma reported some wind damage, but the storms appeared most severe over western portions of the Cabeza Prieta Wildlife Refuge and the Goldwater Ranges - some of the most desolate country in all of the US.
The early WRF model versions each had some some of what actually happened in their forecasts - the NAM version forecast the severe storms in the southwest, while the GFS version had the eastern extent of the storm activity forecast better. It was a significant storm day for eastern Pima County. The ALERT stations had 46 (50%) reporting rainfall with 14 sites having over 1/2" and 5 with over 1". Thus, making it the biggest day in coverage since August 5th, although there were more heavy rain reports yesterday than back on the 5th. Storms here at house with a bit of wind, lightning, and a brief period of rain around 4:30 pm MST. Cores avoided us and rain amounted to only 0.08". Two of the ALERT sectors are shown above and below - note the heavy rains with the severe storms along Ina Road west of Oracle.
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