Showers across eastern Pima County yesterday afternoon produced interesting vistas. Above image looking south from Kitt Peak, about 3:30 pm MST, shows low clouds clinging to the mountain slopes. View north from campus below, a bit after 4 pm, shows the mountains totally obscured, with sunshine illuminating the campus. Campus had a golden hue as the students prepared for the first day of classes today.
Rainfall for past 24-hours shown above for the Catalinas sector of the ALERT network. Generally heaviest storms affected mostly the mountains and slopes, and weakened rapidly as they moved to lower elevations. We had thunder and light showers here before 4 pm that produced 0.05" and then showers during the night produced another 0.05". Across the network 87% of the stations reported rainfall, with 20 sites having more than 1/4" and only 5 sites having more than 1/2". Lightning CGs across southeastern Arizona are shown below for period ending at 5 am this morning (Monday 26 August). The impacts of the Ivo moisture surge were most pronounced out west in the lower Colorado River Basin and the southern California mountains and Mojave Desert.
This morning it remains very moist across southern Arizona. the morning Tucson sounding, above, is the most unstable of the past several days, although there is a cool, stable layer at the surface. The models forecast a push of drier air, on easterly low-level winds from New Mexico, this afternoon and evening. The early WRF-GFS forecasts activity to be west of here today, while the NAM version forecasts a line of storms to move across eastern Pima County ahead of the dry air intrusion. I would lean toward the NAM version, but also will check the new morning forecast runs. Storms should develop over the mountains, but may again have trouble moving to lower elevations.
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