It was again suppressed in the Tucson metro area yesterday afternoon. Above radar is at 5:20 pm MST yesterday, showing only some lingering debris echoes. However, the early WRF-GFS yesterday forecast activity again after midnight and it was fairly accurate. Below is 5:00 am TUS radar composite chart this morning. An outflow from a decaying MCS, which originated in northern Mexico west of the Big Bend, moved westward across the Tucson area around 4:30 to 5:00 am. The gust front was accompanied by light rain but little or no lightning. Here at the house we managed only a couple of hundreths.
Little rain again across the ALERT network. At 5:00 am MST this morning only 6 sites had reported rainfall during the past 6-hours and 11 sites had rain during past 24-hours. An isolated cell produced 1.69" down at Florida Canyon. At 3:35 am this morning Douglas reported a gust to 47 mph from the east and rainfall there was 0.88".
An IR image from 4:30 am is shown above. The early WRF GFS forecast run at midnight at Atmo did reasonably well, predicting the early morning MCS. Below is the model forecast of composite radar echoes valid at 5:00 am MST this morning. The early WRF-NAM and also the NAM forecasts from midnight forecast no morning storms in most of southeast Arizona. The early morning event throws a monkey wrench into the works for the rest of the day and we'll have to observe how things evolve.
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