Miscellany 9 August 2013

Another very pleasant morning for walking here in north Tucson. Temperature at house was around 65F at sunrise. My walk took an unusual turn when a three-legged, medium-size dog tried to attack me. He was amazingly fast, quite vicious, and the owner who was a long way away, didn't seem concerned. Had to fend him (the dog) off several times with my walking stick.

On to the weather, which won't be near as exciting. Yesterday was again totally suppressed. No lightning in Sonora, Mexico, and only some isolated strikes up in the northeast corner of Arizona.

The early WRF GFS forecasts from Atmo indicate a return of middle-level moisture from northern Mexico, with some high-based convection in southeast Arizona both tomorrow and Sunday. The forecast of composite radar echoes, (above) valid at 3 PM MST on the 11th (Sunday), indicates isolated showers in eastern Pima County. The PW forecast valid the same time (below) indicates amounts of water vapor in the troposphere nearly doubling by then, with amounts over an inch.

The Tucson skew-T forecast for 3 PM Sunday is shown above. Winds are southerly from 700 to 500 mb, where there is a sliver of CAPE. High-based showers and virga and gusty winds seem possible, but meaningful rainfall remains out somewhere on the far horizon.