Nice clear view of Baboquivari to south of Kitt Peak, above at 7 am MST this morning. Very pleasant morning here after the dry out of yesterday. The extent of the suppression yesterday was very large, as shown by the lightning strike plot, below for 24-hours ending at 6 am this morning. All of the southern half of Arizona and most of Sonora, Mexico, had no thunderstorm activity.
Time series of GPS precipitable water at Univ. of Arizona site for past 14 days (above) shows PW has dropped to its lowest value in many days, with only 3/4 of an inch this morning. Hermosillo has less than inch also, and all the way down at La Paz the PW is just over an inch. Big question will be how long it will take for low-level, mT air to make a return into the Southwest. The graphic below (from the early WRF-GFS on the 5.4 km grid) shows forecast total rainfall through 8 pm MST Saturday evening. The only meaningful rain in this forecast over southeastern Arizona is indicated on some of the mountains - a quite dry forecast for this time of year. The eastern Pacific is becoming more active, however, so we can hope for some help from disturbances in the subtropics next week.
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