Tucson's morning sounding (above) is quite wet today (Sunday August 25th) and has considerable CAPE - if a significant boundary layer can develop. However, the visible satellite image below from 6:45 am MST shows that the cloud shield associated with Ivo (now a weakening depression) is very widespread and apparently quite thick. Thus, heating may be limited again today. The upslope flow over the mountains may be enough for high elevation storms to develop today - but will they be able to come off the mountains? Another tough forecast.
The early run of the Atmo WRF-GFS forecasts considerable thunderstorm activity this afternoon and tonight across eastern Pima County - which would be considerably different than yesterday. The WRF-NAM also forecasts storms over eastern Pima County, but not to the extent of the GFS version. The models, however, are forecasting considerable sunshine (above is GFS solar irradiance watts/m**2 valid at noon). The sunshine heats things up into the middle 90s by 2 pm MST this afternoon (below again from GFS version). Yesterday's high at the airport struggled to reach 92 F. With today's high forecast for the airport to reach only 89 F, much of what happens today will depend up the local heating.
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