We were away Friday afternoon and yesterday at Santa Rita Abbey (~ 5 miles NW of Sonoita). The Sisters measured 5.28 inches of rain during July, and the landscape has certainly responded with greenness rivaling Wisconsin in summer (above was taken early yesterday morning - Saturday August 10th). When we drove back around 5 pm yesterday there were mostly high-based flat cu around with some storms visible far to southeast to northeast. The plot of 24-hours of CGs ending at 6 am this morning (Sunday August 11th) shows activity in Cochise County, with most storm activity up in the White Mountains. Pima County ALERT network recorded no rainfall for 24-hours ending 6 am this morning - making 4 straight days of no rain and serious suppression.
The CIRA blended precipitable water product for 6 am (above) shows values of inch to an inch and and a quarter or so across southeast Arizona. Very moist mT air remains far to the south over the southern third of the GoC.
The early run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo today forecasts some storms across eastern Pima County. The skew-T forecast above is valid at 2 pm MST this afternoon. The sounding has a fair amount of CAPE, although considerable lifting would be needed to release it at low elevations. We are mostly in southerly flow below 500 mb and westerly flow from the Pacific above - a fairly dismal sounding for rain, but high-based storms and gusty winds possible. The instabilty is due to the cold (for this time of year) temperatures of around -10 C at 500 mb combined with very hot boundary layer with surface temps over 100 F. The model forecast of rainfall through midnight (below) shows mostly light amounts at low elevations of eastern Pima County and keeps most of the more significant storms off in Cochise County and the White Mountains again.
The model forecasts Pacific air to dominate here on Monday and Tuesday with activity shifted even further east.
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