Early this morning the NHC was still calling Manuel a hurricane. It appears that it will weaken rapidly during the day today. The storm is nearly stationary in the southern Gulf of California (GoC). Above is NHC position estimate at around 5 am MST today and below is a water vapor image from 7 am. The storm has produced a serious disaster in western Mexico with great damage and many deaths from heavy rains and floods.
A large MCS developed yesterday during the afternoon well to the north of the hurricane. This MCS moved northward, producing numerous lightning strikes - CG plot above is for 12-hours ending at 2 am this morning. Storms in Arizona remained northeast of the Tucson area, along the New Mexico border.
The early morning WRF forecasts from Atmo continue to forecast some showers and storms over eastern Pima County tomorrow and Saturday - above is early WRF-NAM forecast for radar echoes valid at 3 pm tomorrow. The middle levels continue very warm, although there has been a bit a bit of cooling relative to yesterday, essentially limiting the development of deep convection. Both versions of the model continue to move increased PW amounts up the GoC and into southern Arizona - below is forecast of PW valid at 5 pm MST on Saturday afternoon. So, at least some slight possibility that ingredients will come together for a brief transition event over southeastern Arizona.
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