Moisture holding on below 600 mb. The easterly wind during the night and early morning kept temperatures quite warm at sunrise. Low of around 80 F was almost 10 F warmer than yesterday morning at the airport. Tucson's morning sounding (above) continues to have a bit of CAPE at lower levels, but very dry upper-troposphere (see 7 am water vapor image below) and warm air around 500 mb are keeping deep convection off to the east in Cochise County. The early run of the WRF-NAM forecasts some storms this afternoon and evening in eastern Pima County, but overall it's a hostile situation with east winds adding to the negatives. Moisture continues to be higher from the east to the south and flow below 600 mb keeps trying to move this moisture toward southeast Arizona, and the battle zone continues to be nearly overhead.
Large areas of deep convection and heavy rains are associated with the tropical systems on both coasts of Mexico. Floods produced by TS Manuel have caused a number of casualties in western Mexico.
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