After mid-morning yesterday, it was very suppressed and all the variant WRF forecasts were quite good in predicting the total downturn for eastern Pima County. Rainfall coverage across the ALERT network fell from 100% Monday and Monday night to 0% for Tuesday and last night. Lightning plot of CGs for 24-hours ending at 5 am this morning (above) shows only a couple of isolated storms across all of southern Arizona. The morning 500 mb analysis (12z from NCAR RAL below) shows a Rex Block over the western US and a large anticyclone off east edge of the map. The long-range forecasts gradually evolve this pattern into one with westerly flow dominating across the US.
The early WRF forecasts (above WRF-GFS and below WRF-NAM) for rainfall through 8 pm MST on 13 September indicate precipitation over the higher elevations, particularly over Cochise County. The GFS version goes a bit crazy over New Mexico, forecasting some amounts over 10 inches and the NAM version seems more realistic. Little is forecast for low elevations of Pima County - thus, right now the models are indicating that storm season is over for most of southern Arizona, and we'll have to await some transition situations during last half of September and October.
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