Storms were isolated and mostly over the mountains yesterday afternoon. Above webcam view (Kitt Peak looking south at about 1:40 pm MST) shows a storm south of Baboquivari. The TUS radar composite echoes (below at about 4:30 pm) shows brief-lived storms over the Rincons and Redington Pass.
The plot above of CGs through 5 am this morning (1 September) shows almost no lightning activity over most of southeastern Arizona. Strikes over the east edge of Pima County were with the storms shown on radar above, and the swath of strikes just west of Santa Cruz County was produced by the storm shown in the top image. That storm propagated southward down the mountains into Mexico. The storms over the Rincons dissipated as soon as they tried to move off the mountains, leaving a scenic, orphan anvil moving westward over the city during the evening.
Only 7 sites across the ALERT network had rainfall and those were under the echoes shown above. Two of the stations on Redington Pass had over half an inch of rain. Nothing here at the house, and June, July, and August have been the driest since I started keeping records 15 years ago.
This morning considerable drying has occurred with PW falling into the lower 30s mm and skies are clear across most of southwestern New Mexico and southern Arizona. The upper-troposphere is very dry. Visible image above is for 6:30 am MST.
The WRF forecasts from Atmo this morning again forecast only isolated showers over highest mountains and some later activity along the Borderlands. The graphic above is from the early WRF-GFS on the 5.4 km grid and shows forecast of total rainfall through midnight. Rainfall over southern Arizona is forecast mostly along the higher-elevation Borderlands. The models forecast low-level moisture to slosh back and forth across eastern Pima County with the diurnal wind changes. Both versions of the WRF forecast increased storm activity tomorrow and Tuesday.
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