CG data from past 24-hours ending at 5 am MST (above) shows that thunderstorms stayed off in Cochise County yesterday - much as forecast by WRF models. The CIRA blended PW product for 7 am (on Friday the 13th) shows below that PW has inched up some - from both the east and the southwest - over southeast Arizona..
Water vapor imagery (above from 7:30 am) indicates that the upper-half of the troposphere is very dry over almost all of Arizona. The morning sounding from TUS, below, also indicates this. However, there is considerable CAPE now for parcels from below 600 mb. So buildups will be fighting dry entrainment (especially given the wind profile) at higher levels. There should be increased chances for storms, especially over higher elevations, across the eastern half of Pima County today.
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