Manuel Comes Back To Life

Although the NWS Tucson Office is emphasizing a drying trend, interesting events are occurring at the south end of the Gulf of California. The current NWS Forecast Discussion states:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 
  200 PM MST TUE SEP 17 2013 
   
  .SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY ACROSS  
  THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
  GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. 
   
  .DISCUSSION...A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS SHOWING UP IN SATELLITE IMAGERY  
  THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF TUCSON. MIGHT  
  STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN THESE SAME  
  AREAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD  
  TOMORROW AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS DRYING TREND WILL  
  LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK....

At this time Manuel has become a TD again and is located at the southern end of the GoC.

Current position of Manuel from the NHC (above) with the new forecast shown below. Manuel is forecast to strengthen again to become a Tropical Storm and to move northwestward into the GoC, before turning west across southern Baja. Tropical Storm watches have been issued - shown in yellow below.

Water vapor image from 1 pm MST is shown above, indicating deep convection associated with the re-invigorated system. The WRF forecasts today indicate chances for storms in eastern Pima County with the 12 UTC WRF-GFS starting activity tomorrow and the early WRF-NAM holding off until Thursday. Both versions of the model forecast a significant surge of mT air northward as Manuel crosses the southern GoC.
The forecast below is from the 12 UTC WRF-GFS at 5.4 km grid and indicates the moist air taking an overland route directly into south-central Arizona. So, we need to keep a close weather watch to the south during the middle of this week.