Monday, September 08, 2014

Early Morning MCS Over Phoenix Metro

An early morning MCS did develop, but over Phoenix metro area - as per 1130 UTC IR image above and CGs through 1200 UTC below. There were almost no thunderstorms at all yesterday over southeast Arizona - will do a brief summary of yesterday later.

Phoenix composite radar above is from 1200 UTC and shows the extensive area of rain - at 5 am MST Phoenix Sky Harbor reported 2.03" of rain; while Scottsdale Airport had 1.47"; and Luke AFB had 1.11". Quite some event up  there. 

The Tucson morning sounding is very tropical, very moist (PW of 2.00 inches), and very unstable - outflows from northwest or southwest should set off heavy storms locally this morning. The early WRF-NAM didn't do good job with the sunrise storms, so I have not looked at it. However, the WRF-GFS was better on the Phoenix storms. That model forecasts significant storms over parts of Tucson metro by 8:00 am MST this morning (below). Widespread, dark clouds out there so we'll keep an eye for heavy storms.

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