Friday, September 26, 2014

Morning Update - September 26th

Edited to add at about 9:30 am - looks like the early morning showers have stayed off to the east of Tucson metro.

This morning there is fairly extensive cloud cover across southeastern Arizona, and there are areas of showers and some thunderstorms north and northeast of Tucson. These showers are drifting slowly south and southwestward, so we need to keep an eye to the north this morning. Visible image above is from 7:15 am MST and composite radar echoes below are from 7:18 am.

This is particularly the case give the quite unstable, 12 UTC sounding from TWC on campus this morning. The skew-T plot and diagnostics below are from the SPC. There seems to have been an outflow from the north before the sounding was taken. The air below 800 mb is cool but has substantial CAPE, with a bit of lifting. The same is true of the layer from 800 mb to just above 700 mb. So, it is quite possible that the showers and thunderstorms will propagate to the this side of the Catalinas. 

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