Thursday, September 11, 2014

Early WRF Forecasts Strong East Winds Tomorrow And Saturday

A backdoor cold front from New Mexico is forecast to bring strong easterly winds to southeastern Arizona by tomorrow both early versions of the WRF model run at Atmo. Even with the east winds, the model forecasts some thunderstorms in southeastern Arizona (above is WRF-NAM forecast of composite radar echoes valid at 4 pm MST on September 12th).

Both models forecast the east winds to become quite strong and to continue through Saturday the 13th. Above graphic shows WRF-NAM forecast of 10-m winds valid at 10 pm on the 12th. The winds have apparently been given an added kick by the MCS that the model forecasts over Cochise County and the New Mexico Boot Heel - below is radar forecast valid at 11 pm on the 12th. So, there is some possibility of winds reaching severe thunderstorm levels - but a closer look will need to be taken tomorrow.

Finally, a quick look to the south. Tropical Storm Odile is meandering slowly around near 105 W. The system to Odile's west is also likely to become at least a depression. Additionally, two large, northward moving MCS were present this morning (image is from 6:30 am MST) near the south end of the GoC. This morning's forecast from NHC for Odile (below) indicates that the storm will become a major hurricane and begin moving northwestward by Saturday morning. There is undoubtedly large uncertainty in the forecasts at this time, given the current stagnant motion of the storm. The forecast track of the storm, if it were to verify, is ideal for causing a Gulf Surge of more mT moisture into the Southwest.

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