Monday, September 22, 2014

Very Warm Middle-Level Temperatures Continue

Thunderstorms occurred a bit further west yesterday than forecast by early WRF-GFS model but not into lower elevations of metro area as WRF-NAM forecast. Plot of CG flashes above is for 24-hours ending at midnight last night, and indicates widespread thunderstorms over Cochise County. All of the activity in southeast Arizona tended to stay on the higher elevations. Eight ALERT stations had rainfall, with one site on Redington Pass going over an inch.

This morning's skewT plot for the Tucson sounding (below from Univ. of Wyoming's upper-air page)
continues moist below 600 mb with light winds below 400 mb. Very warm temperatures continue at 500 mb over Arizona and southern California. This will again keep storms over southeast Arizona mostly on the mountains again today.

Both versions of the early WRF forecasts continue to move low-level moisture back into Arizona and southern California as the remnants of Polo move westward. The plot above is PW from WRF-NAM at midnight last night and plot below is forecast of PW field at midnight tonight.

The NHC is indicating this morning that another tropical system is forming south of Mexico and the long-range forecast models again bring what would be TS Rachael near the south end of Baja toward the end of this week.

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