Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Odile Impacts Have Begun

Tropical Storm Odile is partially over the warm waters of the GoC this morning and moving toward southeastern Arizona. While far to the south a new storm has formed - TS Polo. Above is morning overview from the NHC, while below is an IR image from 1230 UTC.

Some light showers moved across eastern Pima County durng the early morning hours (about 0.01" here) and there is currently a long band of light rain extending across the metro area and well to the east and west of Tucson (composite radar image above is from about 6 am MST). The high PW associated with Odile now covers the low elevation areas of southern Arizona with values of 1.75 to over 2:00 inches.

Mike Leuthold did special model runs and a discussion last evening highlighting the heavy rain and flood threats though the next couple of days - however, it does not seem to show up at the link to the right.

The models are all zeroing in on southeast Arizona  as the remnants of Odile move directly notheastward across our area. The rainfall forecasts shown here emphasize the need for weather alertness and caution through Thursday. Amounts are valid for period ending at 5 am MST on Friday morning the 19th. Graphic above is from the NAM and below is from the GFS.

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