Friday, September 26, 2014

Early WRF-GFS Forecasts Very Active Day Today

I have taken a quick look at the forecasts from the early run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo. I looked at GFS version because the model forecast the early morning storms to our north fairly well and NAM version did not. The forecast sounding for TUS (above) valid at 3 pm MST this afternoon indicates substantial CAPE, with very light steering winds - so model forecasts threat of heavy rains with slow moving cells. 

The WRF-GFS forecast of composite radar echoes valid at 5 pm this afternoon (below) indicates an active day with a number of areas of strong thunderstorms across the model domain. By 5 pm a number of strong outflows have affected much of the state, and an outflow from storms to west has forced the storms over the metro Tucson area. Forecast from the model of total rainfall through midnight (bottom) is quite impressive for most of Pima County.

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