This morning's (11 February) analysis of the 500 mb level from the NAM (above) places the short wave across the Four-Corners Region at 12 UTC. This feature is forecast to dig south-southwestward, close off, be south of the border by tomorrow morning, and over the east Pacific west of Baja by late Friday. As this happens, winds will pick up from the east to northeast tonight and tomorrow across our region. The midnight run of the WRF-NAM at Atmo forecast of 10-m winds at 11:00 am MST tomorrow morning is shown below. The model forecasts strongest winds to occur over the California coast ranges and Baja, as well as southeastern Arizona.
The possibility exists that, as the two closed, 500 mb cyclones over the east Pacific consolidate, subtropical moisture may make it into Arizona for shower activity Sunday and Monday. At this point in time it remains a coin toss as to what might actually happen. The GFS keeps precipitation south of the border, while the ECMWF brings showers into southeastern Arizona.
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