Saturday, February 07, 2015

Keeping Focus On 00 UTC Feb 13th

This is just a quick update to yesterday's post.

The global model's forecasts have changed fairly markedly after just 24-hours and here is very quick look. Graphic above is the 500 mb spaghetti plot (average of the ensembles left and spaghetti right) from the GFS with valid time of 00 UTC February 13, a Friday. The dominant feature over North America is the strong ridge positioned from the Great Basin northward. The only bowl of spaghetti present at low to middle latitudes sits over the Southwest and eastern Pacific - so maybe it's too early even for a coin flip. 

Only a couple of the ensemble members have precipitation near the Borderlands in this run. Graphic below is from the operational GFS for 48-hour precipitation ending at 00 UTC the 13th (i.e., the latest version of the forecast shown at bottom of previous post). Quite some change. All of this says something about the logic of the NWS issuing high-resolution (time and space) grid-point forecasts out through seven days!

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