Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Latest Model Forecasts

A quick update based on the WRF models run at Atmo. There has been little change since yesterday, except that the model (NAM version) has really kicked up the winds blowing in from the east late Wednesday night and Thursday. Forecast above is from the 00 UTC forecast run of the WRF-NAM on the 5.4 km grid and is for 10 m winds valid at 9:00 am MST on Thursday the 12th. Strong winds now forecast from southern New Mexico and northern Mexico westward across the the coast ranges along the Pacific coast. Forecast below is from the 1.8 km grid and is valid at 1:00 pm MST on Thursday afternoon - speeds are quite strong in eastern Pima and Santa Cruz Counties. The current NWS grid forecast for the airport (TUS) is for:

  • Wednesday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 55. Breezy, with a north wind 14 to 19 mph becoming east 23 to 28 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph.
  • Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Breezy, with an east wind 24 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph.

By 5:00 am MST the WRF-NAM forecasts a distinct cyclone at 500 mb to be located west of central Baja (above), with low-level subtropical moisture extending northward up the entire Gulf of California - setting the stage for possible weekend showers/rain extending into President's Day.

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