Thursday, December 24, 2015

Broad-Area View From WRF For The Weekend

Interesting "deer meets snowman" photo from the internet this morning.

As for the weekend storm, models continue to forecast minimal weather for most of southeastern Arizona so it continues to be a " wait, watch, and see if anything happens at low elevations" event for us. 

I took a quick look at the 06 UTC WRF-NAM forecasts on the 5.4 km grid this morning to get a broad-area view of the model's forecast. Graphic above shows the model forecast of accumulated precipitation for the period ending at 11:00 am MST on Sunday the 27th. Graphic below is same forecast, but for snowfall. The most serious impacts of the strong, closed low at 500 mb is forecast for New Mexico, Northwest Texas and the Big Bend, and western Oklahoma. A nasty winter storm, with a mix of precipitation types, will probably cause havoc for Holiday travelers returning home on the roads. Note also that snowfall extends far southward across Chihuahua State in Mexico, and the storm will likely cause much misery down there.

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