Sunday, December 20, 2015

Models Zig-Zag Again

The new 500 mb forecasts from 12 UTC again show the difficult predictability situation for the coming three-day Holiday weekend. The ECMWF (above at 168-h valid 12 UTC on 27 December) now forecasts a closed low over northern Mexico. The same forecast below is from the GFS, which is now the more progressive forecast. The new QPF plumes from the GFS ensemble (bottom) are now even more all-over-the-place. We'll just have to watch to see how the real world atmosphere evolves this week, and now I suspect that neither model has a very good "lock" on what we'll see come Christmas Eve.

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