Friday, December 11, 2015

Quick Update On Impending Weather Event

Tonight's precipitation event continues to be forecast by all 21 members of the GFS ensembles from 06 UTC last night - plumes plot above indicates models' QPF amounts at TUS ranging from about 1/10 to 3/10 inch. So, not a substantial amount being forecast, but this would be the first precipitation of December. Shown below is the forecast for composite radar echoes from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo - it is valid at midnight tonight and indicates several bands of showers across southeastern Arizona.

Considerable model-spread for possible trailing event next Monday/Tuesday.

Both versions of the WRF forecasts from 06 UTC forecast similar distributions and amounts of precipitation though 6:00 am MST tomorrow morning - above is from WRF-GFS and below is from WRF-NAM. It will definitely be a raw night tonight, after the warm afternoons we've been having last few days.

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