Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Art Douglas' Summer Outlook

Art Douglas has shared his analog-produced summer outlook for JJA 2016 - above is the analog 700 mb pattern (his analog years are noted on the charts). His comments on the 700 mb pattern are below.

The resulting anomalies in temperature (above) and precipitation (below) are very grim indeed for the Southwest. The corresponding, but not at all similar, outlooks from NWS CPC are shown further below.

Art notes that: ... the "coin flip" comment [in my earlier post] on NOAA's summer forecast here has some hidden info........basically NCEP has no clue as to what will happen and a coin flip says equal chances above or below.  There are times two competing signals end up with above or below normal forecasts and thus they cancel each other.  In this case I don't see competing signals cancelling each other and giving equal chances, rather NOAA has no clue.  Splitting hairs, I know!

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