Sunday, May 22, 2016

CPC Outlooks For Next Few Months

Here are some current outlooks (plus a forecast from their CFSv2 model) from NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC). I show these for general interest, since the track record for the CPC outlooks for the Winter and Spring have not inspired much confidence in their products.

Graphic above is for JJA temperature. Even though it continues unusually cool in the Southwest, the Summer outlook is for a switch to above normal temperatures. Graphic below is for Summer precipitation and indicates a coin flip is appropriate for most of the country. This too seems a switch for the Southwest, since much of the region has been very dry most of 2016.

The Summer forecast above is from the center's CFSv2 numerical forecast model and is for precipitation. The output from the model appears not to carry much weight in the final outlooks issued by CPC. Finally, graphic below is for JAS, since June doesn't mean much here in the Southwest. Interesting that the outlook is very much different than the Summer one above. The wetness in the Summer forecasts occurs principally in June, while September shifts wetness to the Southeast and returns dryness to the Northwest, while nothing changes much in the Southwest.

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