It was an active afternoon yesterday across much of the Southwest with fairly widespread thunderstorm activity. Above graphic shows CG flash density for 24-hours from weather.graphics and Vaisala. Composite radar image below is from the Yuma radar at 4:30 pm MST yesterday afternoon.
Here in the Tucson area this morning humidity is noticeably higher and there are some moderate cu around from west to northwest. The morning skew-T plot for the TWC 12 UTC sounding above (from SPC) indicates a fair amount of CAPE present. The profile is excellent for supporting active thunderstorms, since the bulk of the CAPE is present in the layer with temperatures of -10 to -25C. The 06 UTC runs of the WRF model at Atmo tend to keep most of the storms around flanks of Catalinas and to the north and east. Both the NAM and GFS variants forecast only isolated thunderstorm over parts of Pima County. Current NWS grid forecast for airport indicates 30 % chance of precipitation and that for the grid up at Oracle indicates 40 %.
Regardless, it should be an interesting day.
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