Thursday, May 05, 2016

Quick Look At WRF Model Forecasts

The MIMIC PW analysis for 12 UTC this morning is shown above (from CIMSS at Univ. of Wisconsin). There is some indication of the middle and upper-level closed low that will impact the Southwest through the weekend west of central California. This system is forecast to shift slowly southeastward as several distinct shortwaves rotate around it. The PW remains very low to the south of this system, making the forecast for showers uncertain, as it has been the last couple of days.

The 06 UTC forecasts from the WRF model at Atmo are quite different for late Saturday and Sunday. The NAM variant picks up enough moisture to support light showers and thunderstorms over Pima County beginning Saturday night and continuing Sunday - WRF-NAM precipitation through 11:00 am MST Sunday morning is shown above. However, the GFS variant remains dry over most of southeastern Arizona, as per the same forecast below. At this time we can be confident that it will be unsettled over the weekend, but details remain to seen.

However, the models continue to forecast strong winds this afternoon over much of Arizona - forecast below is from the WRF-GFS and is valid at 1:00 pm this afternoon. So, more dry and dust this afternoon.

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