Edited to add: David Blanchard has beautiful photographs up on his blog of moonbows and lightning, as well as a loop that is quite something. Jim Steenburgh has a loop of GFS forecasts for Irma, as well as a spaghetti plot showing the large range of various model's track forecasts. Links to both blogs to the right.
Hazy skies, with perhaps a bit of smoke aloft, led to an orange, setting moon this morning.
Weather attention into the new week will be focused on Irma and the forecast sharp turn to the north after the storm reaches the Florida Straits. Out here in the West the intense, blocking ridge continues (500 mb analysis for 12 UTC above from NCAR), and there are two distinct anticyclone centers - one over southern Utah and the other over the Washington/Oregon border. Heat and devastating wildfires continue up in the northwest.
The morning sounding plot (below for TWC at 12 UTC) indicates dry, easterly winds up to 400 mb and no CAPE. It appears that dry air over New Mexico and southeast Arizona will battle with moist air over the lower Colorado River Basin, with the boundary between the air masses pushing back and forth over Pima County. Perhaps a day or two with thunderstorms around through the weekend.
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