It was the coolest morning so far here of meteorological Fall. Temperature here at house was 50 F at 7:00 am MST, and I had to wear light windbreaker on my morning walk. Temperature at TUS was 57 F and at DM AFB it was 55 F. Coolest temperature I found on Mesowest for this time was 35 F at a site east of Tombstone.
A new tropical storm - Pilar - has developed near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. The NHC forecasts this morning (above) move the storm slowly northward and weaken it along the coast, before it gets into the GoC.
Ernest Hemingway lived in Cuba off and on during his life and his 36-foot fishing boat was named "Pilar." After the intense hurricane of Labor Day 1935 struck the Keys, Hemingway took to the waters around the Keys on Pilar, and was involved in rescuing survivors and recovering bodies of the more than 600 people who perished. The story of the hurricane and Hemingway's involvements afterward are detailed in the book shown below. It is an interesting read and provides historical information about the hurricane, Hemingway's efforts and reactions, and the tragedy that befell mostly World War 1 veterans who were employed constructing the Florida Keys Highway.
As for our weather - the large trough over the West pulls away to the northeast by mid-week, but a trailing short wave closes off over Arizona - above is the 00 UTC GFS operational forecast valid at 5:00 pm MST on Wednesday the 27th. In sync with this, easterly winds intrude from New Mexico, bringing higher PW into the state. The long term 00 UTC run of the WRF-GFS (on 1.8 km grid) teases our area as per chances of rainfall before month ends. Below is that model's forecast of precipitation through midnight on October 1st.
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