Above plot shows ALERT measured rainfall for past 30 days ending at 5:00 am MST this morning, indicating how miserably dry it has been for most of the metro area since mid-August.
Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) below is for 24-hours ending at midnight last night. Models were right on, keeping most storms north of our area. There were some storms to the south affecting Santa Cruz County, with one storm off to southeast of metro area in Pima County.
Forecast above from 00 UTC WRF-GFS on 5.4 km grid shows precipitation through 5:00 am next Monday. The forecast indicates continued DRY. The heavy rainfall over Baja Sur is from forecast hurricane Norma (Max went inland over southern Mexico) - the nasty trough pattern over the Southwest shunts Norma off toward northern Mexico.
Forecast for 500 mb (from 00 UTC ECMWF) is valid next Monday at 5:00 pm - the western trough continues to amplify in the forecasts through at least the early part of next week.
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