Any Rain before September Ends?

Cloud band this morning led to a beautiful sunrise - above looking east from Tucson Blvd., and bottom Finger Rock highlighted by some color.

It was an interesting astronomical summer - the monsoon rains essentially fell from July 10th through August 13th, with hardly enough here the rest of summer to dampen the soil. Very dry conditions here with non-desert plants requiring attention nearly every day.

Large trough continues to deepen over the West - 250 mb analysis above from SPC - with a strong jetstream of  more than 100 kts crossing Arizona. But, this large system doesn't bring much moisture with it this far south, and subtropical moisture is shunted northeastward. 

Forecast below is from 00 UTC WRF-GFS last evening and is for total precipitation (on the 5.4 km grid) through 00 UTC on September 30th. Heaviest rains forecast for northeastern Mexico and southwestern Texas, but also wet for High Plains and Southern Plains.