Update re gusty east winds - airport has gusted briefly to 31 mph and we had gusts along the Rillito from mid-morning to early afternoon of 30 to 35 mph. Mt. Hopkins RAWS site has gusted as high as 61 mph (below), showing how well the WRF forecasts can be used to predict high wind events there.
A Plains cold front is moving southward across west Texas and northeastern New Mexico this morning - surface plot above from NCAR RAP at 7:00 am MST this morning. The front will backdoor across southern Arizona tonight and tomorrow bringing gusty winds from the east.
Forecast above of 10-m winds is from the WRF-GFS at 06 UTC and is valid at 4:00 am tomorrow morning. This forecast indicates possible gusts around 30 mph for the metro area after midnight and into the morning tomorrow.
The forecast skew-T for Sonoita (below from same run and valid at 7:00 am on 22nd) indicates east winds below 700 mb of 20 to 30 kts - this forecast, if it verifies, would bring an east wind event to Mt. Hopkins during the night with gusts in 45 to 65 mph range.
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