The morning track forecast for Rosa (above) and intensity forecast (below) is from JTWC, which provides a bit more detail in their forecast graphics than does NHC. The centers continue to forecast Rosa to be headed toward northern Baja and southwestern Arizona during the day on October 2nd.
The QPF plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS forecasts last night are shown here - from top to bottom - Yuma, Phoenix, Tucson, and Deming NM. The spread for forecast amounts at Yuma and Phoenix is near 4 inches and at Tucson and Deming about an inch and a half to two inches.
Rosa poses a threat to bring significant rains to the Southwest - but that threat currently extends from southern California all the way to southwest New Mexico. All of the plume forecasts also have some members forecasting amounts near zero. Thus, with the possible event four days away, it is important to talk about the developing threat of heavy rains and flooding, but it is still too soon to talk about specific amounts expected for the Tucson area.
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