We have been away since early Thursday am to attend a family wedding in Marin County, California. Photo above shows the morning commuter (people and not cars) ferry for San Francisco departing the Larkspur Ferry Landing at 7:30 am Friday morning - conditions were foggy, cool, moist and great compared to long run of 100+ F days here.
However, storms in northern Sonora late yesterday (CG flashes below from Atmo and Vaisala for 12-hours ending at 10:00 pm MST last night) pushed cool outflows with higher moisture northward in to southern Arizona.
Morning skew-T plot for TWC sounding data above has PW up to about an inch and a quarter, and SPC analysis indicates some mid-level CAPE. Wind field is, however, very chopped up. The WRF forecasts from last night indicate afternoon thunderstorms, mostly over central Pima County, where elevations are somewhat higher than here in Tucson area. The forecast soundings, however, indicate a deep and well-mixed BL. Not clear to me that afternoon sounding here will mix out to a single BL - may be lower BL with old, capping BL above.
The 500 mb analysis (also from SPC) below shows the messy 500 mb pattern. The old tropical disturbance that moved ashore in Texas has left behind a distinct inverted trough that is trying to inch westward against the trough - this could perhaps bring a more serious threat of storms by mid-week.
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