Visible satellite image above of Rosa at 10:00 am MST this morning indicates that the storm is rapidly weakening. The concurrent IR image indicates that deep clouds and convection remain active only to northeast of storm center. The NHC track forecast (below) from 8:00 am remains little changed, and also tries to keep Rosa at TS strength (winds > 39 mph and < 73 mph) into northern Baja.
Thunderstorms have developed this morning out near the west boundary of Pima County - composite radar above from Yuma at about 10:30 am.
Models remain consistent in forecasting widespread and significant precipitation event for Arizona. However, the QPP forecasts continue jumping around considerably with each new forecast cycle. Two forecasts below are both from today: 00 UTC WRF-GFS for total rainfall, while bottom is from 12 UTC WRF-NAM. Note that one forecasts 0.40 inches at the airport, while forecast from this morning indicates 1.90".
Swath of heaviest rainfall continues to run from Organ Pipe National Monument across Phoenix metro area and into Rim Country.
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