Saturday, December 08, 2018

Moderately Wet Event Here Moves Eastward

Our first precipitation event of December occurred on both the 6th and 7th, with two episodes about 12-hours apart. The ALERT maps here cover the entire event. Looks like total amounts about equally split above and below half an inch, with max amounts around three quarters of an inch. Considerable lightning and thunder occurred during both episodes, but was much more widespread in the second, heavier episode yesterday. Map second below covers entire event and shows CG flash density (from and Vaisala).

The airport had 0.72", considerably exceeding yesterday's model forecasts - including all the GEFS plumes. Here at house the total was 0.58" - nice event to start December with amounts more than November's one event by more than two.

The long-range is fairly uncertain - a weak system passes by around December 12th, with little precipitation forecast to accompany it. By 240-hours (5:00 pm MST on December 17th) there is a very large difference between the operational GFS (above) and ECMWF (below) forecasts. last time I did a long-range comparison the average of the two models was closest to observations - this time?

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