Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Christmas Weather Event

I have been offline a few days while son Jason visited - he is flying home this am and is currently at LAX, before heading east for DIA.

Above shows Grand Targhee, Wyoming, with Christmas skiers at about 11:30 am MST. This location is west of Jackson near the Idaho border.

For us, there'll be a fast-moving storm system crossing southern Arizona this afternoon and tonight, as we start an unsettled amd much cooler final week of 2018. 

This morning's 12 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at Tucson (above) forecast a basically nighttime event here - the QPF values range from about 0.10" to 0.44" at the airport. A following short wave produces another event for the 28th, and then uncertainty sets in among the GEFS members for rest of year.

The WRF model forecasts for the airport have been jumping around quite a bit. The forecast for total precipitation below is from this morning's 12 UTC WRF-NAM - this model forecasts a Trace at airport. The 06 UTC runs had the NAM version also with just a Trace, while the GFS version forecast 0.20". At the bottom is the 12 UTC WRF-NAM forecast skew-T for TWC valid at 9:00 pm early tonight. There is certainly enough CAPE in the sounding to support winter thunderstorms. Will watch and wait.

To all who would happen to drop-in here today - hope you have a great Holiday.

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