Monday, December 17, 2018

Still Looking Ahead

Have just looked at campus webcam images for past week - most of week was similar to above from 3:00 pm MST yesterday - cloudy to mostly cloudy. There were two days mid-week that were sunny to partly sunny.

Of interest is that light showers occurred across parts of metro after dark last evening - just a sprinkle here with a Trace, and no reports of 0.04" in the ALERT network.

The GEFS forecasts for Christmas Eve at 5:00 pm continue to have a large spread - I picked out 4 interesting members (500 mb above and surface with precipitation below). Some members of the ensemble forecast a closed 500 mb low somewhere over the Southwest/northwest Mexico. At the same time 2 of the members forecast precipitation over southeast Arizona at that time. The operational ECWF for same time is not much like any of GEFS forecasts. This is mainly because the European model is slower and forecasts a strong, closed low over our area after 192-hours. 

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