Above is 13 UTC MIMIC analysis of total PW this morning. Center of circulation is now west of San Diego with no well-defined atmospheric river. The wild card for us may be the northward-moving plume of higher PW that has been coming northward up the GoC and Sonora. Current loops seem to indicate that this stream may stay off to our east; however, radar indicates a large area of precipitation already over the northern GoC. Considerable uncertainty as this event gets underway.
The NAM 500 mb forecast this morning for 12 UTC tomorrow morning is below. The short wave is just moving across southern California at that time. Analysis shows that the flow splits west of Oregon, with strong northerly and southerly branches,
The 06 UTC GEFS plumes forecast (bottom) more rain at airport than yesterday, with a spread from 0.30" to 1.00" at airport, and average of 0.55". The 06 UTC WRF forecasts are now much drier than any of the GFS forecasts, with only about a tenth of an inch at airport. The forecast soundings do indicate a chance for thunderstorms both this evening and again tomorrow morning.
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